Even for us optimists, it's time to face the reality that 2011 is over for the Cards. They gave us all one last hope last week when they swept the Brewers in MIL. Since then they are 1-3 against the Reds and Brewers (AT HOME). There is a slightly better chance to capture the wild card over the Braves, but this team has not shown that they can string any wins together so I am ready to declare it "hockey season". So sad, too early.
So looking ahead to 2012 - I can't help but wonder if this team is better or worse with Pujols. Yes, he is the best player in baseball. Yes, he instills fear in the opposing team each time he comes up. But in most games, he bats 4 times. And Holliday has not proven to be a clutch #4 hitter to consistently make the opposing manager pay for pitching around Albert.
So I decided to take a financial look at the 2012 Cardinals. These salaries are not exact, I was able to find total value for player contracts, not year by year amounts, so many just represent the average amount over the course of the contract. Even with that said, my calculations should be within about $3-5M in the end. That's relatively close when guessing that the Cardinals will have to have a payroll of $120M next year should they want to even consider keeping Albert. This year, I believe their salary was in the $110M range.
Here's the big contracts on the books for 2012:
Holliday $17M ($120M over 7 years)
Molina $7M - assumes they pick up the team option for this amount
Wainwright $9M - just exercised his option + 2013 at $12M
Lohse $10.25M ($41M over 4 years)
Westbrook $8M ($16M over 2 years)
Garcia $7M ($27M over 4 years)
Those 6 players (2 hitters, 4 starting pitchers) = $58.25M or 48.5% of the $120M potential budget.
This means that $61.75M remains to fill in the final 19 roster slots (actually 34 as there is a major league roster of 40, but I'll do the math on the 25-man)
Carpenter has a team option for $15M, or a buyout for $1M. Bye, bye Chris! No room for that salary as that would leave only $46.75M for 18 players - or about $2.5M avg per player - still no Albert factored in.
Now let's load up the team with our inexpensive young talent. This year all of these guys made either the league minimum of $414k or maybe 10% more. Let's just figure each at $450 as they might get that 10% increase in pay for 2012.
Craig $450k
Jay $450k
Freese $450k
Descalso $450k
Boggs $450k
Motte $450k
Salas $450k
Rzepzkyski $450k
Getting these 8 guys before they are arbitration-eligible comes to an efficient $3.6M total. That just helped out the team quite a bit. Adding the $3.6M to the $58.25M and so far we have spent $61.85M on 14 players. Still have 11 slots to fill (still no Albert), still have $58.15M to spend.
Of these 11 spots, here's what we need to fill: 1B, SS, 4th OF, 5th OF, 2nd C, MI, CI, SP, RP, RP, RP.
Do you bring back McClellan? He will cost you about $1.5M. How about Schumaker? Roughly another $1.5M. A decent backup for Yadi? That typically runs about $1M. So there we have just spend another $4M to keep some inexpensive hometown veterans.
We have now spent $65.85M and need to fill 8 more slots.
Let's figure in Albert at this time. I will be very optimistic with this number of $25M a year (maybe he is getting another $3M deferred until he retires).
You now have your big horse in the middle of the lineup, you have made all of St. Louis happy, and you now have $29.15 left to spend on 7 more roster spots.
You will need to look for a reclamation project to be the 5th starter or hope that one of the guys at Memphis is ready. The Cards usually spend $5M on a #5 starter, it's fair to assume that track record will hold true. $24.15 remains.
There are two more reliever spots open. You so far have a bullpen with the highest salary of $1.5M in McClellan. Perhaps Sanchez comes back from his injury and is lights-out again and you step up to bring in a lefty specialist. All-in between the two you spend another $5M. $19.15 remains.
It's time to get an everyday SS who can cover some ground and swing the bat. Furcal seems to be a good fit, but his team option is at $12. That's probably a little high, maybe $8 is more like it for someone with his skill set - and that is a good fit for this team. You get Furcal or someone who is like him. Good work! You now have $11.15 left to spend.
Your last 3 spots are a CI (corner infielder) and 2 backup outfielders. Yes, this could all be covered from within. Maybe Tyler Greene gets a 3rd year try, perhaps Shane Robinson and Nick Stavinoha are all called upon. You have came in under budget by roughly $9M (don't forget you had to buy out Carp at $1M to not sign him for $15M). But let's look at that team
C - Molina
1B - Pujols
2B - Descalso
SS - Furcal-type guy
3B - Freese
LF - Holliday
CF- Jay
RF - Craig
SP - Wainwright
SP - Garcia
SP - Westbrook
SP - Lohse
SP - Duncan - reclamation project
RP - Salas
RP - Motte
RP - Boggs
RP - Sanchez
RP - Rzepzkyski
RP - McClellan
RP - lefty specialst du-jour
BENCH
C - Laird-type guy
MI - Schumaker
OF - Stavinoha
OF - Robinson
CI - Greene
Is this a playoff team? Is this championship team? Yes, there is another $9M to make improvements on any of these spots. Maybe that means bringing the Big Puma back for another year. What is so different about this 2012 and the 2011 team that could not do the trick? Sure you can replace some low-cost guys with other low-cost guys. But your home-bred players are going to the the cheapest. Even getting a mediocre guys with 5 years experience will cost you $3-5M a year. Quite a bit more than the $450k.
About the only way to make a $25M signing of Pujols work is to have 10-11 guys player near the league minimum. That's a lot of hope from the farm club.
Now imagine what that $25M spread over 2-3 positions does to the club? Upgrade your 2B and still get a very good 1B. Still with money to spare to bring in a proven bullpen arm. This team looks a little more well-rounded.
It will be hard to watch Albert crushing HR and reaching .300 / 30 / 100 every year for another team. But what are we really trying to do here? Watch a great player with lack of lineup and pitching support? Or watch a team compete for the World Series annually?
I leave you with one more question. Now look at 2013 - Lohse is off the books, Waino costs an additional $3M, Molina's contract is up and each of those cheap guys costs you maybe 10% for some, and a couple million more for those who are reaching arbitration. What does the team look like in 2013 and beyond?
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