Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Cards 8-Person Trade Fallout

So, after days of saying that we were not shopping Colby Rasmus the Cards dealt him to Toronto for a slew of pitchers, a few players to be named later and a journeyman 4th outfielder. It has been interesting to hear the 2 points of view on the trade thus far. Here's how I weigh in:

On Mo saying that he was not shopping Rasmus.Let's be honest here, you can't negotiate in the papers, blogs and tweets. Cards management said what they needed to say in public to keep some pressure of Rasmus and also to keep the other owners wondering what was going on. If he came out and said that Rasmus was on the block, his value slips.

Moving Colby Rasmus
Colby has appeared to be a distraction (or distracted) since his rookie year. If you recall that season he complained that the veterans were not "including" him. Last year, his sophomore season he supposedly requested a trade (thus killing his value at that time). Then this year he had troubles keeping his average above .250 then said that he wanted to listen to his father's advice on hitting over the paid coaches. As I said to my dad today, "that's fine when you are 14, not 24". Colby was going to continue to be a distraction, or distracted, either one here. That's just the way it is. Think about a time in your life when things were stacked against you for some reason or another, often it is best to leave the situation and start anew. I think that applies here. Colby is thought to have tons of talent. If that is true, perhaps he finds it in Canada. The Cardinals needed to get something for him while they could.

Jon Jay has unseated 2 everyday outfielders in 2 years
Think about this, here is a guy with about 200 games in the majors and he has allowed the Cardinals to move Ryan Ludwick and Colby Rasmus. 2/3 of the 2010 opening day outfield has lost out to the hungry Jon Jay. Jay plays the way the Cardinals want a young player to play. He hustles all the time. He keeps his mouth sut. He consistently performs (with the exception of after the Cards traded Ludwick, but his average was still .300 for the year). Jay is a solid player, but not the kind of guy you build a club around. Compare his hitting stats to a prior centerfielder of the Cardinals - Skip Schumaker. .300 hitter, gap power, capable of stealing 5-10 bases a year, good glove. These are the kids of guys the Cardinals love to stack around the big 3 in the middle.

Did we give up anything more than Colby?
Losing Colby's potential stings. But what else did we really give up? Tallet and Miller were both struggling this year and probably not far from being straight out released by the Cardinals. They were costing the team wins. PJ Walters was not a top prospect. He was servicable. He could be called upon, eat some innings, but he has proven over the past few years that he is a classic AAAA player. Can dominate AAA, but can't stick at the majors. So the way I look at it is that the Cards traded a young and talented CF, dumped two lefty relievers and threw in a servicable mid-inning guy.

Getting fair value
I guess this is the million dollar question. And a question that can be attempted to answer today, can be attempted to answer again at the end of the season and perhaps again in 3 years or so. Looking at it today the Cards made a move to improve the 2011 team. Just looking at stats, compare Colby to Corey Patterson. AVG/HR/RBI/SB Patterson (.252/6/33/13) Rasmus (.246/11/40/5)
If they are to play that same average out the remainder of the season they are fairly similar (losing power, gaining avg and sb). They you look at the pitchers; Miller was benched for games on end due to ineffectiveness, then gave up a hit in his last Cardinals pitch to add fuel to his fire. Tallet is on the DL. Walters' last appearance briefly let the Astros back into the game on Monday by serving up a grand slam to Carlos Lee. That was his last pitch as a Cardinal I believe.
The lefty relieve we got, Rzepczynski is young, under team salary control for a few years and has a respectable ERA under 3.00. Dotel has bounced around a bit but has proven that he can be a closer (good Salas insurance) as he saved 22 games last year. He also strikes out more than a guy per inning so he has the stuff to get hitters to swing and miss to get him out of jams. Batista did not pan out earlier this year. Dotel now assumes that role with a more recent history of getting hitters out. Finally Edwin Jackson jumps into the lineup. There are now 6 potential starters for the Cardinals. This is key as they hit the long days of August. Jackson has the ability to go 6+ innings each time out and we have seen time and time again what Duncan can do with good pitchers who have not consistently found their rythym. Let's don't forget the 3 players to be named later. You don't know for a few years if any of them will ever amount to anything. Most likely not a superstar, but maybe the next Jon Jay that will allow us to move a poor fit player in 2015 or so.

So yes, I think it is a good deal for the Cards. I think it is a good deal for the Blue Jays too. They get someone needed a reset button. Cards get players to help them win this year and give up from strength. Oh yeah, and they didn't have to move any promising talent in the minors.

So what are your thoughts? Have an opposing view? Agree?

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Absolutely, great trade. Getting Jackson - a guy with tons of potential - allows McClellan to move back to the pen, Dotel has proven he can play, Rzepczynski gives another weapon in late innings, something that Tallet and Miller certainly weren't offering. And one reason why so many in STL like the trade is because we've been through this before....young 5 Tool player, a future perennial All Star and team captain, maybe even a HOF'er...the next Mickey Mantle. And no, for all his brief flashes of brilliance, J.D. Drew became none of those things. Many of the same traits that Rasmus has exhibited seem similar as well...doesn't seem to give it 100% at all times, thinks his overall skill should more than make up for an occasional lack of hustle. Overally sensitive to criticism. Doesn't quite seem to fit in, and doesn't "want" it bad enough..at least in the eyes of the fans. That won't play in STL, and the fans here remember the hopes of Drew, and then the disappointment after we all realized that we DIDN'T have the next Mantle playing in the outfield. We just didn't want to go through that all again.

Momesso said...

oh, and we got some guy named Wainwright for Drew.