What I Learned From the 2014 Cardinals Playoffs

Again, done in my the SF Giants. It is an even year, so I suppose it was the Giant's turn to represent the NL (as they did in 2010 & 2012). 

I recall a couple of weeks ago cheering for this very same Giants team to take down the Pirates. The winner-take-all Wild Card Game played out as I had hoped. Had I only known what I was really hoping for...

The Giants showed up to play. In the last two games of the NLCS they were behind to the Cardinals, only to find a way to scratch and claw their way back to a tie, then push ahead late in the game. I give credit to the Giants, they played well, they played smart and they got contributions up and down their lineup and throughout their pitching staff. This takes me to what I learned about the Cardinals.

The Middle of the Order
Our line up was at first-glance like a donut. The top performed, the bottom came through as well. But there was a big hole in the middle. The 3,4,5 hitters were basically non-existent. Remember that hot-hitting Matt Holliday who spiked his HR and RBI total in September to give him decent numbers when the year was all said and done? Yeah, I hardly remember him too. Because he was not present in the playoffs. He was back to his pedestrian self, especially in the NLCS. Zero RBI out of your #3 hitter and centerpiece of the lineup. When he stepped to the plate with a runner on third, he reverted to his April & May approach of popping up weakly to the right side. Not deep enough to score the runner. Now, it's not all on Holliday, you can throw Jhonny Peralta in that mix too. I believe he had 1 RBI, and that was a seeing-eye-single. Peralta basically became the poster child for hitting into double plays. When he was not rolling over a ball and hitting it innocently to the shortstop, he was hitting into bad luck by driving the ball right at someone for a different type of double play. Finally, there is Matt Adams. Everyone will remember his critical homeruns, and he did punish a few left-handed mistakes, but other than that, he was flailing at the sweeping curveballs like he had never encountered one before.
I am pretty sure that Dodger and Giant pitchers were anxious to get past the hot-hitting Carpenter and Jay to attack Holliday, Peralta and Adams. Each of those guys telegraphed how to get them out, and when the pitchers were successful with their approach, our boppers were neutralized.

Luckily They Found Their Power
Can you imagine how one-sided either or both of those series would have been had the Cardinals NOT somehow found a power stroke? For much of the postseason the Cardinals were relying on about 70% of their runs coming from the long ball. This from a team that was second to last in HR during the regular season. Had Carpenter, Wong, Adams, Grichik not all muscled up, these could have been ugly sweeps. The batting with runners in scoring position never did come alive, but the batting with the bases empty and down a run or tied sure did look impressive as far as the power-stroke goes. There was a good approach to some top pitchers. That was encouraging by the young guys. Especially Wong and Carpenter who both hit good pitches. More opportunistic by Adams and Grichik who sat on hanging curve balls. They all count the same in the end, but let's call a spade a spade.

Leadoff Walks Will Kill You
Randy Choate usually has one job. Get the one tough lefty out in a high-leverage situation. Understandably he can't be perfect all of the time, and when you face only one batter your margin for error is greatly increased. BUT, to walk that hitter each time you came in was just mind-blowing. Almost as much as the fact that Matheny kept going to him (more on that later). He was not alone, Marco Gonzales fell victim to the same entrance once he was asked to work on successive days for the first time. The Giants took advantage of their opportunities, and those were more prevalent late in the games when the bullpen was asked to be perfect.

Mathenaging
I heard this term for the first time yesterday and I can't think of a better word for what Matheny does and does not do. There is no book that he follows. He marches to his own beat when it comes to making managerial decisions and that is why there had to be a word created for it. For much of the season this word meant sticking with under-producing players for too long (Alan Craig). Then it allowed the definition to encompass the over loyalty to a set batting position for a player (Matt Holliday). The definition grew more later in the year when the baffling platoon between Bourjos and Jay seemed to defy any rational explanation. Then in the playoffs it took on the mis-management of the bullpen & finally putting in a left-handed swinging rookie to face a tough lefty instead of a righty bat against a struggling reliever.
Bruce Bochy had to be thanking Matheny for that late pinch hitter on Thrusday night that gave him the solid rationale to pull his closer for a lefty specialists that had been schooling the Cardinals all series.
Back to the pitching changes. In game 3 he gives Miller the hook early in the game, but proceeds to burn through most every reliever he has available. Letting each one go for only a couple of outs. At the on-set, his team was leading, but he managed like he was down a couple of runs. Why was this not the game that Wacha was utilzed. It was not a win-or-go-home game, and he is conditioned to go several innings - exactly what was needed. Since he stacked relievers for 6 innings he had several pitchers who were not available in the win-or-go-home game the next day. Also, Gonzales has the ability to go multiple innings. Yes, he is left-handed and for some reason in the playoffs that means becoming a specialist, but this was another option to eat innings and not over tax the rest of the 'pen.

In all, the Cardinals were out-played and out-managed. I believe that Matheny put his team and his players in difficult situations several times in multiple games. BUT, the players have to play. The big guys have to drive in runs, the fielders have to catch and throw the ball and the pitchers have to execute. All of those areas were lacking and so the Cardinals are not going back to the World Series. 

It'll be an interesting off-season to be sure. Who will make the team as OF in 2015 from the pool of Holliday, Jay, Bourjos, Robinson, Taveras, Grichik, Pham & Piscotty? Who will be in the rotation that could feature Wainwright, Lynn, Lackey, Miller, Wacha, Gonzales, Martinez & Garcia?

Where do the Cardinals find a right-handed pinch hitter? Who is the backup for Adams? Is Rosenthal your defacto closer? Or do you recognize that his control issues could be a detriment in that role and find someone who throws more strikes? Again, lots of questions but the good news is that outside of the closer and RH pinch hitter, all are playing from areas of surplus. The Cardinals are set to be perennial contenders, and that keeps me excited for next year.