I think this is a critical number that needs to be looked at closely by teams that want to challenge for a championship...or at least a playoff berth.
We know that relievers can't go every night. In fact, those that rack up even half of the games (81) are often seen to be "over used".
Today, a typical, strong reliever can be counted on for 60-70 innings of work each season. If you are carrying a 7-man bullpen, there is already a gap of 16-86 innings based on 60 innings * 7 pitchers or 70*7. Then you factor in that many teams carry a LOOGY (basically a lefty who is called upon to just record one out of a menacing left handed hitter). So those guys only rack up 30-40 innings a year - causing an even greater gap in needed innings from the relievers.
As we look at the Cardinals for 2016, here's what has to happen to cover the innings needed for the Cardinals to compete:
- Rosenthal 70 innings
- Oh 70 innings
- Braxton 70 innings
- Walden 70 innings
- Maness 70 innings
- Siegrist 70 innings
- Lyons 70 innings
That requires a lot of managerial maneuvering and a solid plan to spread the guys out so they pitch only once every 2.3 games. It is also nice to not have the standard LOOGY - Randy Choate to add additional stress to the pen's needed innings.
It also means that no one gets hurt - or has a horrible season where you can't rely on them to pitch their 70 innings. So every bullpen actually needs to have 2+ guys waiting in the wings that could step into the role of eating these innings at the once every 2.3 games pace.
History tells us that injuries and fatigue will cause most of the 7 bull pen guys to fall short of the 70 innings mark. The Cardinals will likely need to make up a full 70 innings this year from AAA pitchers like Mitch Harris, Sam Tuivailala, Miguel Socolovich, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney. If the Cards can somehow get 420 innings from the primary 7 relievers, they continue to pitch above the league average with their starters and the AAA boys can fill in admirably for 10% of the total bullpen innings this team should be in a good position to compete - regardless of what the lineup is able to put on the board.
