File This Under Petty

Sometimes the decisions you make not to do something are better than the decisions to do something.

Many years back I saw this t-shirt at Target (photo credit Target too). Me being raised in the original Star Wars era thought this to be a cool retro shirt that would be fun to own. For whatever reason I did not buy one. Maybe never felt like splurging on the $10. Maybe it was not in my size when I was there. Simply, I never bought it.

Here in 2017 I continue to see this shirt on guys everywhere (not everyday, but every month - at least). And I have noticed one thing. Not once have I looked at one of these guys and said, "he looks like a guy I'd like to hang with and have a beer".  NEVER!

So, perhaps, I avoided being lumped in with this group by not buying a shirt. Or, perhaps I am lumped into this group and I don't know it...but I'm the one of the group without this shirt. Either way, I'm glad I kept my $10...but I still love my Star Wars!

Nearly Half A Century In Kirkwood

Tomorrow I sell my investment property in Kirkwood and it will be the first time in my life that I have not had a physical connection with Kirkwood, MO.

Funny, selling this condo seemed so transactional until I realized that either myself or my parents have had a home in Kirkwood for every second I have been alive. It was a great place to grow up - safe community, good schools, amazing friends. I have probably biked every last street in Kirkwood at one point or another and I have enough memories in that town to take up a full day of stories. However, tomorrow my financial connection to the town ends.

Here in the last 6 months we have sold Dad's house (which was quickly leveled to allow for a larger home to be built on Essex) and tomorrow we are selling the property that I bought for my sister to live in when she came back to St. Louis. She has now bought a place of her own and no longer needed the condo in a neighborhood that did not fit her style. (so I guess her connection ends tomorrow too)

I'll always bleed Kirkwood Red, I'll always have a fond place in my heart for the 63122 zip code - but like so many other things here recently - change is the new norm. I do like that others will be able to move to Kirkwood and see what a great town it is - and create their own memories.

For me, I'll drive though from time to time. Take a passing glimpse of the old addresses, just like I have been doing for years for the other addresses we had in Kirkwood. But it will never be the same. The connection will be gone - it'll just be memories from here on out.

It's been a good run, I hope tomorrow's new residents of Kirkwood are able to make the same quality of memories that I did there.

So long 'wood...

A Pitching Staff Full of 3-inning Specialists?

I have the writing bug today, so I have finally decided to capture this idea that has been floating in my head since last summer.

Andrew Miller (now with the Indians) has allowed many General Managers and Pitching Coaches to think differently about relievers again. For many years now, relievers have become more and more specialized. They even created the LOOGY for those left handers that only come in to face left handed batters. So what if you created a pitching staff of "Andrew Millers"?

What I mean is that you focus on pitchers that only have to go once (sometimes twice) through a batting order. A staff of pitchers that go no more than 3 innings per appearance - even the starter (gasp!).

If you look at pitcher's stats it is typical that the batting average against is lowest the first time a hitter sees that pitcher that day. The 2nd time the batting averages usually improve (about .010) and the 3rd time the batting averages improve again (another .010)...and if the pitcher has made it to 4 times through the order, the average is usually quite high (add another .010). Source: Baseball Prospectus

I want to look at assembling a team of "One Time Through the Order" guys (OTTO's) who would pitch more frequently but would not pitch deep in a game. When an arm is fatigued is when it is more susceptible to injury, so why not pull the pitcher before he tires. And then, get him back out there sooner than every 5th day. Pitchers already have a "throwing day" scheduled between starts - this is because it is not normal or healthy to work your arm so hard, then let is completely rest for so long.

Of course there are some challenges to this that I'll address later, but let's look at how it would work first.

Pitcher A would start on Day 1. He would be followed by Pitcher B and Pitcher C. In a perfect world, each would get three innings to complete the game. More on what happens when their stuff is off that day and/or their spot comes up in the lineup in a critical spot.

Day 2 would see Pitchers D, E and F.
Day 3 would see Pitchers G, H and I.

So, yes, you have burned through 9 pitchers in 3 days, but you have also only seen each pitcher throw 3 innings over those 3 days. And they have all thrown presumably their best stuff since they knew they were only going to go three innings and likely only see most batters once. The average pitches per inning is between 15-20, so you are only throwing about 60 pitches every 3 days.

You still have 2-3 other guys in your bullpen that are your emergency guys or specialists. These are the ones you call on when someone is not performing well or you need to pinch hit in the NL. This scenario means that you have 11-12 pitchers, just like today. No change there.

Stats Prevent this From Happening
Today, the coveted stats are "counting stats" like Wins and Saves. This alignment could have a big impact on the Wins category as there is a rule in MLB that a starter must go 5 innings to qualify for the win. So, to get around these rules, you would have to juggle your "starter" for each game some. In other words A, D and G would not always pitch the first 3 innings. Sometimes B, E and H would start and perhaps C, F and I as well. There will be 54 games each for these guys, so there will be more games to pitch in than starters do today (usually about 30) and still plenty of chances for wins. The same can be said for the save. In my scenario your closer is going to be the last of the 3 pitchers, so those stats would accumulate differently too. I can see a situation where you have 2 of the pitchers in a group (A, B, C) that would be thought of as early game pitchers and one that would be relied upon more as a late game pitcher. For a .500 team that would mean 13.5 wins each for A and B and some percentage of 27 saves for pitcher C. All pretty good stats still.

Why This Will Work for Early Movers
Remember how Moneyball changed the game? After a few years every team started looking at hitters differently when one team (the A's) thought about hitting stats differently. But it took time. They valued something that other teams didn't and they one because they were able to get their guys cheaper than the other teams could get guys using the old method. It would be easy to find 12 pitchers on the market in any year that are really good at getting through the lineup once. These are the guys who had high ceilings but never harnessed that 4th pitch to help them get through the order the 3rd time. These pitchers are also much less expensive than the elite (based on today's pitching stats) aces and the dominant closers. A team that could find pitchers with open minds and ability to be dominant for 60 pitches every 3 days could revolutionize the way the game is played.

Innings Projections
Of course there will be injuries during the season and there will be players that don't perform and who are replaced by others who will, but just looking at the math, here's how it would shake out over the course of the season.

There are about 1,460 innings to cover over a season (162 x9). For pitchers A-I this assumes that they don't always go out for 3 full innings, their appearance is sometimes cut short.

Pitcher A  150 innings
Pitcher B  150 innings
Pitcher C  140 innings

Pitcher D  150 innings
Pitcher E  150 innings
Pitcher F  140 innings

Pitcher G  150 innings
Pitcher H  150 innings
Pitcher I   140 innings

That leaves 140 innings total to be captured by the other 2-3 "emergency/specialty" pitchers - which is 45 - 70 innings each.

I am thoroughly intrigued by this approach and I'd love to see a rebuilding team go this route while they are trying to keep payroll down but still want to remain as competitive as possible and also as entertaining for their fans. So come one Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres, I'm talking to you!

Handling a pitching staff is a common topic for me, see my other posts on the topic from years past:
The Evolution of Managing a Pitching Staff
506 Innings

Thoughts?

One Last Game With Dad?

Man...I hate even thinking about that. Dad and I have gone to so many baseball games together over the years. We have created vacation itineraries around teams being "home" so that we could see new ballparks. And here I am now. On the eve of going to a Cardinals game with my Dad and I can't help but think this might be the last game we ever get to see together, live.

It chokes me up.

I was thinking back to all of the different stadiums we have visited together just yesterday. I came up with 14. That's a lot of summer vacations planned around ballgames!

My Dad is the one who gave me my love for both baseball and baseball stadiums. There was nothing I loved more than to be by his side at a ballpark as he kept score (and taught me how) watching the game slowly roll by. For years, we would take a road trip to Chicago to see a Cardinals v. Cubs series at Wrigley Field. Each trip we would stay on Diversey, a long walk to the ballpark, at a hotel that he would always refer to as "The Mighty Comfort". We were there for the "Ryne Sandberg Game" in '84 when Sandberg hit 2 home runs off Bruce Sutter. I believe that is the game I was wearing a replica Tom Herr jersey and I was ruthlessly heckled on our walk back to the hotel. We also once sat next to the great Redd Foxx and his bodyguards a few rows above the first base dugout. Those trips were magical. I still love Wrigley because of my memories with my Dad there.

Today Dad is not doing so well. He was diagnosed with Alzheimer's about seven years ago and for the most part, he was very highly functioning and had plateaued for a few years. I took advantage of this plateau a few years back and took my Dad with me to Minneapolis to attend a game at the new Target Field. Dad was still able to travel at the time and I knew that it would be our last baseball road trip together. That trip also marked my completion of seeing a game at every active major league ballpark - a journey that my Dad started for me in the early 80's, I was now completing in 2014 just as I should...with my Dad by my side.

That Twins game was bittersweet. I so loved sharing the adventure with Dad and it meant the world to me that I was able to bring it full-circle with him helping me round out my ballpark tour. But, I also knew that he would not remember the game, the feelings, the love.

That brings me back to tomorrow night. Dad has been slipping fast the last eight months. He is no longer on that plateau. He easily gets lost and crowds can be a bit over-bearing for him (and rightly so). So tomorrow night, for the Giants v. Cardinals game we will be there in left field again. A seat very similar in perspective to the ones where he and I saw Bob Forsch throw a no-hitter against the Expos some 33 years ago, in a ballpark that is now long gone. I will insist that we buy a scorecard and a pencil again, just like we did so many times before. We have the scorecard still of Terry Pendleton's first MLB game (I believe he had four or five hits that night). Dad will not be able to keep score any more, that is my job now. I'll offer it up to him several times, but the cognitive ability is just not there anymore to do something that he could do in his sleep for so long.

I hope that I am overreacting. I hope that he is fine at the game tomorrow night and that we can continue to go to games periodically for years to come, but that optimism is fading.

So as we sit there in Busch Stadium tomorrow night, I'll be enjoying every conversation we have about baseball when he was growing up. I'll be reminiscing about our trips out west in 1989 when we saw both the Giants and the A's in one trip. Another trip we took to LA when we were able to see both the Dodgers and the Angels. I'll be thinking about our trip that took us to both Tiger Stadium and to Municipal Stadium in Cleveland. I'll be thinking about our upper deck seats in old Memorial Stadium in Baltimore where the seats were as steep as any I have every climbed to. I'll be thinking about the rich green colors that I always recall when thinking about old Comiskey. I'll think back to he and I squeezed into the tiny seats in Fenway Park, days after we went to Cooperstown in '99.

I'll try to hold back my tears. They are tears of both happiness that I have seen so much with him...and tears of sorrow that those days are behind us now...and way too soon.

Whether tomorrow night is our last game together or not, I'll have a scorecard to remember it by. I'll even be sure to get a photo of the two of us with the beautiful Busch Stadium field behind us. It will be another great memory for me...and another reminder of how cruel Alzheimer's is.

Go Cards!

506 Innings

In 2015, the average MLB needed 506 innings from their relievers. That equates to just over 3 innings of baseball EVERY GAME that needs to be covered outside of your starting rotation.

I think this is a critical number that needs to be looked at closely by teams that want to challenge for a championship...or at least a playoff berth.

We know that relievers can't go every night. In fact, those that rack up even half of the games (81) are often seen to be "over used".

Today, a typical, strong reliever can be counted on for 60-70 innings of work each season. If you are carrying a 7-man bullpen, there is already a gap of 16-86 innings based on 60 innings * 7 pitchers or 70*7. Then you factor in that many teams carry a LOOGY (basically a lefty who is called upon to just record one out of a menacing left handed hitter). So those guys only rack up 30-40 innings a year - causing an even greater gap in needed innings from the relievers.

As we look at the Cardinals for 2016, here's what has to happen to cover the innings needed for the Cardinals to compete:

• Rosenthal 70 innings
• Oh 70 innings
• Braxton 70 innings
• Walden 70 innings
• Maness 70 innings
• Siegrist 70 innings
• Lyons 70 innings

That requires a lot of managerial maneuvering and a solid plan to spread the guys out so they pitch only once every 2.3 games. It is also nice to not have the standard LOOGY - Randy Choate to add additional stress to the pen's needed innings.

It also means that no one gets hurt - or has a horrible season where you can't rely on them to pitch their 70 innings. So every bullpen actually needs to have 2+ guys waiting in the wings that could step into the role of eating these innings at the once every 2.3 games pace.

History tells us that injuries and fatigue will cause most of the 7 bull pen guys to fall short of the 70 innings mark. The Cardinals will likely need to make up a full 70 innings this year from AAA pitchers like Mitch Harris, Sam Tuivailala, Miguel Socolovich, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney. If the Cards can somehow get 420 innings from the primary 7 relievers, they continue to pitch above the league average with their starters and the AAA boys can fill in admirably for 10% of the total bullpen innings this team should be in a good position to compete - regardless of what the lineup is able to put on the board.

2015 Concerts

Another year comes to a close and as I look back on 2015, I wanted to reflect on the live music shows that I was able to see this year. And a huge tip-of-the-hat to Bevin for helping me score some crazy good tickets to many of these shows!

In total I saw 9 live shows this year (national acts), which I feel is down a bit from previous years. While I was able to see a few bands to close out Lou Fest on their Sunday night, I am just counting it as one show. Most of the music would fall into the New Alternative Rock classification this year - also a bit different than years past where there is a healthy sprinkle of '80s alternative in the mix - this year only Billy Idol was seen live from that era...and he was part of the Lou Fest lineup.

As I go back and try to rank them I find myself gravitating to a most unusual pick for my "concert of the year". It's a band that I honestly have no interest in buying their album, and I only knew two of so of their songs going into the show...but the show was so deep, so moving and at the exact right time for me, that I have to say that Beach House was by far the best show I saw in 2015. The concert was definitely a performance. The lights were down low and the stage was backlit (never once saw the face of the band members on stage). The sound was moving, it was almost like a trance and it took me to another place for the nearly two hours they performed.

Had Beach House not been so "moving" there were other shows that would have taken the top spot for me. Nathaniel Rateliff & the Night Sweats was a rockin' show straight out of the 1950's. Lots of layers to the music and everyone from the band to the audience was 100% into the music. They filled the Ready Room easily (sold out in less than a day, I believe) and the music filled the space as well. I already was a fan, this secured it for me.

Glass Animals played an outdoor show at The Old Rock House on a beautiful summer night and their sound was as great outdoors as it was indoors the year before. The lead singer does not look like he should be fronting a band...and he tries to overcome that by partially acting like a hype-man as well as the lead singer. Their sound is very percussion-based but live the rest of the music arrangement also fills the air. I can't wait to hear what their follow up album will sound like, the inaugural one is amazing from start to finish.

I also could not help but love Zola Jesus - all 4'-whatever of her. Her voice is much bigger than her tiny frame and when she started doing laps at the Ready Room and you could hardly see her because she is smaller than EVERYONE there, you had to love her sense of adventure as well.

Somewhere in the middle of the pack this year were Passion Pit (actually better than I had expected, but not in the top four), Kaiser Chiefs (just paying to see the lead singer's antics is worth the price of admission) and Gaslight Anthem (their sound is much better at Pops than the Ready Room - yes, I said the sound is good at Pops!).

On the other end of the spectrum was Saint Motel. I'll spare some of the criticism because they were playing a free show in the middle of the street in what is called the Grove Fest. However, I had high hopes as I had their EP and thoroughly loved their two popular songs and also enjoyed the other two cuts on the album. Come to find out, beyond those four, they were producing duds. There were times I wanted to leave...and that was before they played their "hits". Their two popular songs did save the show for me, the energy shown and reciprocated during those songs was strong...but not enough so to get me to pay to see them when they returned to St. Louis a few months later.

Here's the full list of shows from 2015:
Zola Jesus, Gaslight Anthem, Kaiser Chiefs, Glass Animals, Lou Fest (Billy Idol, Young the Giant), Saint Motel, Passion Pit, Beach House & Nathaniel Rateliff.

In 2016 I already have my sights set on seeing the Cure in Chicago in June, but beyond that I need to see who is touring. I am hoping for a few tours this year from bands that have been laying low. I'd love to see White Lies and She Wants Revenge if they decide it's time to tour again. Silversun Pickups and Miike Snow both just released (or will soon be releasing) albums, so I hope their tours bring them through StL. I'd like to hear a follow up album from Future Islands and then the concert to support it - another lead singer who's on-stage mannerisms are worth admission, alone. Next, add Temper Trap and Two Door Cinema Club to my wish list for 2016 - I have no idea if they are planning a tour, but I sure hope so. And like every year since 1988 I hope that the Smiths get back together just for one tour...and that the tour lands somewhere close to St. Louis.

Here's to a rockin' 2016! Cheers!

Recommended Offseason Checklist for the St. Louis Cardinals

Yes, it was an amazing year for the Cardinals. Winning 100 games is not to be scoffed at. These guys won with all types of injuries and held off the Pirates (2nd best record in all of baseball) and Cubs (3rd best record in all of baseball) until the playoffs. However, one must always look to improve. The Cubs will likely be better next year with another year of seasoning...and if the Pirates OF ever lives up to their combined potential then it will be a 3-way race to the top again. Here's one mans view of what should be top of mind for the ownership, coaching staff and players as they prepare for 2016.

• Resign John Lackey - yes, we have a bunch of starting pitchers, but if 2015 proved one thing, you need more than you think...and you need work horses. Lackey is a work horse who would be an amazing #2 behind Wainwright...even at 37+ years old. Get it done.
• Find a backup to Yadi who intimidates a little with the bat. Hey, Cruz has earned his stripes defensively - he had some great throws to dab would be base stealers in Molina's absence...and the pitchers trust throwing to him...but when Cruz is in the lineup, you are severely hurting an already compromised lineup. Yadi can't seem to make it through the season any longer, he needs more rest...and that rest comes with someone who can be trusted offensively and defensively. Being Yadi's backup is a hard sell, being a perennial playoff team is not...and the AB will increase for the backup if it is the right fit.
• Pick your top four outfielders + one versatile backup and cut the rest. At the end of the year AB were being shared with too many OF who were auditioning. There is too much talent in the Cardinals OF to treat it like a revolving door. Make up your mind on Heyward (resign or cut loose), Grichuk (middle of order hitter or bench player), Pham (super sub or CF), Jay (CF or superfluous piece), Bourjos (bad base stealing pinch runner, defense only, roster filler). I think we all have seen that Holliday will play (and bat 3rd) for Matheny if he says he can play...and Piscotty has earned a spot in the OF. Make decisions on the rest of the OF and go with it...move the rest.
• Teach the hitters to either A) lay off the ball below their knees or B) learn to hit that ball with some authority to the opposite field. In the last game of the playoffs the Cubs scouting report was very easy to discern...low and outside sliders. Throw them often...the Cardinals will chase. The Cardinals whiffed 28 times in the last two games alone...and I bet the majority of them came off balls in the dirt (or close). Mabry, this is on you...then the hitters to implement your teachings.
• Find a cleanup hitter who can handle the job. Peralta is not your guy. Good hitter, not a #4 hitter. Heyward is not your guy either. He filled in admirably, but he is not your cleanup hitter. Holliday is not your guy - for God's sake, please get him out of the middle of the order. Do we need to trade to fill this role? Possibly. We have a plethora of #2/5/6/7 hitters and no legit #3 or #4 hitters anymore. Address that need. Maybe #3 is Piscotty. It's OK if a rookie forces a veteran like Holliday out of his usual lineup spot. It happens on most teams - aging veterans move to new spots in the lineup and do quite well.

Of course, there are many other storylines this offseason. Will the Cardinals pay market value for Heyward? Does his steady bat (though not gaudy numbers offensively) coupled with elite defense warrant paying him top dollar when you still need some impact bats? What to do with all of these young pitchers? If we sign Lackey we have six starters already for opening day (I'm assuming we resign Garcia as his contract is a virtual steal when healthy). We also have Cooney and Lyons ready to be a 5th starter and a few others knocking on the door as well. What do you do with Adams? Is he done? Can he hit lefties?

I am sure there are others, but the five points above would be my emphasis. What are your thoughts?